(387.48 KB - PDF) Download Specialised cropsĮU olive oil production is expected to be record low in 2022-23 (1.4 million t, -39% year-on-year) mainly due to the production drop in Spain as a result of an extremely hot and dry weather. The EU oilseeds production in 2022-23 is expected at 31.3 million t (+5.2% above 5-year average), helped by an excellent rapeseed harvest (+13.6% above 5-year average) which fully out weighted decline in sunflower seed harvest due to the summer drought. Cereals exports are expected to remain strong (+4.7% above 5-year average) thanks to an increased soft wheat availability. EU imports of cereals could increase by 44% compared to a 5-year average to 35 million t due to an increase of imports from Ukraine.

The poor harvest combined with high cereals prices at the beginning of the season and an anticipated decrease in EU meat production is expected to reduce the use of cereals for feed by 2.9% year-on-year, while food use is expected to increase slightly (+0.8% year-on-year). The 2022-23 EU usable cereals production is projected at 265.6 million t, a 6.9% decrease compared to the 5-year average mostly due to the drought conditions that affected maize in particular (-24.3% below 5-year average).

In addition to the short-term outlook, the Commission also publishes associated documents, including statistical annexes and balance sheets. Market outlooks are provided for the EU-27. These issues form the basis for the spring 2023 edition of the short-term outlook report. Global agriculture faced the third consecutive climatic cycle of ‘La Niña’ in 2022, and large parts of the EU experienced winter droughts, further worsening water availability in regions with already record low water reservoirs. However, the spring 2023 short-term market outlook is still driven by the negative impacts of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, notably on energy, fertiliser and feed prices, and by the ensuing high input costs and food inflation, that continue to weigh on agricultural markets and EU consumers’ purchasing decisions. High commodity prices last year helped countering high input costs and the first estimates indicate an increase of the EU average farm income, with significant sectorial and regional disparities. Since the autumn 2022 edition, energy and fertiliser prices have started to go down.

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